Numerical modeler focused on bringing simple solutions to complex problems in weather and climate.

I’m now working in the private sector. This website includes a portfolio of some public research from my time as a Scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

The stratospheric circulation leading up to the 2021 cold air outbreak in observations and experimental forecasts.

The stratospheric circulation leading up to the 2021 cold air outbreak in observations and experimental forecasts.

Pathways of planetary-scale atmospheric waves across the Pacific indicate that less than 3% of the wave forcing for the event reflected off the polar vortex.

Pathways of planetary-scale atmospheric waves across the Pacific indicate that less than 3% of the wave forcing for the event reflected off the polar vortex.

In forecasts, surface temperatures over North America are frigid - even when the stratosphere is artificially engineered to shut down the wave reflection mechanism.

In forecasts, surface temperatures over North America are frigid - even when the stratosphere is artificially engineered to shut down the wave reflection mechanism.

Did stratospheric dynamics drive the deadly February 2021 cold air outbreak in the United States? Unconventional but simple modifications to the initial conditions of numerical forecasts provide a decisive answer: no.

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Forecasts that are unsuccessful and successful at predicting a sudden stratospheric warming, and the verification (MERRA2). Here, "unsuccessful" means a false negative - a forecast should have predicted a sudden warming, but didn't. All composites re

Forecasts that are unsuccessful and successful at predicting a sudden stratospheric warming, and the verification (MERRA2). Here, "unsuccessful" means a false negative - a forecast should have predicted a sudden warming, but didn't. All composites relative to the sudden warming date.

Regression of wave drag, residual mean angular momentum flux convergence, and net momentum tendency on stratospheric jet deceleration during a sudden stratospheric warming.

Regression of wave drag, residual mean angular momentum flux convergence, and net momentum tendency on stratospheric jet deceleration during a sudden stratospheric warming.

Composites of jet-level momentum budget terms with the (black) correct zonal mean and (red) the zonal mean from the other composite.

Composites of jet-level momentum budget terms with the (black) correct zonal mean and (red) the zonal mean from the other composite.

How can you improve the prediction of sudden stratospheric warmings? By investigating the physical process that is equal and opposite to the wave drag driving the event.

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Refining the global grid over North America can resolve gravity wave dynamics, including horizontal propagation that isn't captured by parameterizations.

Refining the global grid over North America can resolve gravity wave dynamics, including horizontal propagation that isn't captured by parameterizations.

Spectrally decomposing the circulation in space and time provides deep insights into vertical transport.

Spectrally decomposing the circulation in space and time provides deep insights into vertical transport.

A gravity wave produced by flow over the Rocky Mountains reaches well into the stratosphere, and is associated with a localized injection of stratospheric ozone toward the surface.

A gravity wave produced by flow over the Rocky Mountains reaches well into the stratosphere, and is associated with a localized injection of stratospheric ozone toward the surface.

Gravity waves transport momentum and constituents between space, Earth’s surface, and everywhere in between. They can only be resolved in high-resolution simulations. We leveraged hundreds of terabytes of model output from short, expensive model simulations to generate a deeper understanding of their impact on the climate system.